WORLD ECONOMIC REPORT FOR 2010

World growth is projected to fall to ½ percent in 2010, its lowest rate since World War II. Despite wide-ranging policy actions, financial strains remain acute, pulling down the real economy. A sustained economic recovery will not be possible until the financial sector's functionality is restored and credit markets are unclogged. For this purpose, new policy initiatives are needed to produce credible loan loss recognition; sort financial companies according to their medium-run viability; and provide public support to viable institutions by injecting capital and carving out bad assets. Monetary and fiscal policies need to become even more supportive of aggregate demand and sustain this stance over the foreseeable future, while developing strategies to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, international cooperation will be critical in designing and implementing these policies.




The world economy is facing a deep downturn.

Global growth in 2009 is expected to fall to ½ percent when measured in terms of purchasing power parity and to turn negative when measured in terms of market exchange rates (Table 1.1 and Figure 1, view: Data Figure 1). This represents a downward revision of about 1¾ percentage point from the November 2008 WEO Update. Helped by continued efforts to ease credit strains as well as expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the global economy is projected to experience a gradual recovery in 2010, with growth picking up to 3 percent. However, the outlook is highly uncertain, and the timing and pace of the recovery depend critically on strong policy actions.


Financial markets remain under stress.

Financial market conditions have remained extremely difficult for a longer period than envisaged in the November 2008 WEO Update, despite wide-ranging policy measures to provide additional capital and reduce credit risks.1 Since end-October, in advanced economies, spreads in funding markets have only gradually narrowed despite government guarantees, and those in many credit markets remain close to their peaks. In emerging economies, despite some recent moderation, sovereign and corporate spreads are still elevated. As economic prospects have deteriorated, equity markets in both advanced and emerging economies have made little or no gains. Currency markets have been volatile.

Financial markets are expected to remain strained during 2009. In the advanced economies, market conditions will likely continue to be difficult until forceful policy actions are implemented to restructure the financial sector, resolve the uncertainty about losses, and break the adverse feedback loop with the slowing real economy. In emerging economies, financing conditions will likely remain acute for some time—especially for corporate sectors that have very high rollover requirements.



A pernicious feedback loop between the real and financial sectors is taking its toll.

Global output and trade plummeted in the final months of 2008 (Figure 2, view: Data Figure 2). The continuation of the financial crisis, as policies failed to dispel uncertainty, has caused asset values to fall sharply across advanced and emerging economies, decreasing household wealth and thereby putting downward pressure on consumer demand. In addition, the associated high level of uncertainty has prompted households and businesses to postpone expenditures, reducing demand for consumer and capital goods. At the same time, widespread disruptions in credit are constraining household spending and curtailing production and trade.

Also the uncertainty surrounding the outlook is unusually large. Strong and complementary policy efforts are needed to rekindle activity.Global monetary and fiscal policies are providing substantial support.Inflation pressures are subsiding.Anemic global growth has reversed the commodity price boom. Emerging and developing such as India, China, Gulf countries economies are experiencing a serious slowdown.